The Bear Is Learning – So Should We
Despite catastrophic losses and failure, they are adapting…
Ukraine’s ability to innovate under fire is now exceedingly well documented. New Tactics, new technologies, new weapons; the War in Ukraine will be looked back on as an excellent example of Ukrainian ingenuity, grit and resolve.
Yet behind Ukraine’s fight for freedom, it’s enemy Russia is not as blind or deaf as we in the West would prefer it was; the Bear is learning from the Nightingale.
In this article I will list a few of the innovations and tactics Russia has learnt, and how NATO and the West could respond…
The Drones
The most obvious first innovation to remind people of is the war’s extensive use of drones.
This particular topic is vast. The Shahed drones that nightly menace Ukraine’s cities; Rubicon, Russia’s specialist Drone unit. To say nothing of their continued use of the likes of Lancet loitering munitions and their pioneering use of Fibre optic drones; it was Russia, not Ukraine, who first started mass producing Fibre optic equipped FPV drones. Whilst Ukraine has caught up somewhat, Russia is assisted by the extensive support China provides in its production of these kinds of drones.
Whilst Ukrainian successes have resulted in professional publication of FPV drone videos, Russia has similar equipment and similarly trained pilots, who use many of the same tactics and achieve the same successes.
Russia is also learning or copying Ukraine around the use of sea-based and land-based drones. Whilst their experience and use is not as extensive as Ukraine’s, they have added a variety of formidable weapon platforms to Russia’s arsenal.
Drones provide a variety of new capabilities and options to Russian commanders…
…where are our own drones?
If Western countries are going to go up against Russian drones in a future war, in whatever environment or circumstances, they will need drone defences and drones of their own.
Ukraine, if sufficiently supported, can provide not only lessons learnt but also a vast trove of cheap, effective, constantly updated and battle-tested drones for a variety of combat roles. Its defence industry, even now in the midst of war, could be leveraged for its capacity. Ukrainian FPV pilots could easily pass on their hard-won knowledge if NATO commanders are willing to listen.
Many research and development projects are currently ongoing amongst NATO states but the easiest way to fight Russian drones right now is with Ukrainian ones. The ‘Drone shield’ initiative is one aspect that could be further leveraged in wartime…
Infiltration
It is bloody, wasteful, uncaring and horrifying, but it works, at least in how Russia frames it.
Russia sends groups of its soldiers forward constantly to try to infiltrate through Ukrainian lines. Often just two or three men at a time. A great many are slain by mines, artillery, drones and Ukrainian defenders; still, a trickle get through.
They dig in, consolidate, and await reinforcements. Their lot is not one to be envied for once enough arrive, they move forward again. A constant grind. Not an advance all at once as in World War 1, but instead a constant movement of men, punctuated by the occasional armoured assault.
It leaves little opportunity for learning advanced tactics, for allowing a veteran soldier Corp to develop or for particularly adept troops to be identified for specialist training. Instead, the vast majority of these contract soldiers never hon their skills; they’ll be lucky to come out of the war without mind or body broken, if they survive at all.
Yet…they advance. Hundreds of metres of blood-soaked ground, but they advance. They fulfil their role in the bloody business sufficiently to allow maps to be updated and Russian and Western commentary to say with enough truth ‘Russia is advancing’.
The lack of concern over casualties is now ingrained; Russia is willing to accept a huge toll in blood for very little geographical gain. It may take it 100 years to advance as far as Kyiv, but it is this bestial lack of concern that will remain.
On its ow,n it would be totally ineffective. However, when combined with Russia’s other war strategies such as Disinformation, economic warfare etc, it fulfils the Kremlin’s bloody business. No sane military would ever adopt such tactics that treat men as currency to the spent; outside of Russia, it will find no long-term role. The Russian military will keep using it though, because Putin prefers stupid and dead soldiers, to smart, professional, alive and vengeful…
…prepares yourselves
War is a bloody business, and infiltration tactics can be beaten. With adequate reconnaissance, targeted mass fires, precision strikes on supplies and logistics, such infiltration tactics can be quickly rendered mute. The proper, brutal application of firepower could end any hope Russian units have of positioning and moving in on enemy positions.
Ukraine has been unable to do this on mass, due to a simple lack of artillery units and front line infantry. The combined forces of NATO, on the other hand, possess considerably more artillery and infantry between them. With adequate supplies of ammunition, careful positioning and the leveraging of detailed reconnaissance information, they could vector in precision fires to destroy Russian troops before they get anywhere near the front line.
The Soviet Union could call on mass to seek it's war winning goals, but the Russian army of today is not them; it is nowhere near as sophisticated and twice as uncaring in its deployment of men and material. NATO, if it takes the threat seriously, can beat them.
Mass Firepower
The Russian army has always shown a particular fondness, indeed skill, in the massing of raw firepower.
Artillery was described by Stalin as the ‘God of War’, and to this day, Russia can both produce and deploy enormous amounts of artillery of both tube based (traditionally artillery cannons) and rocket based (the likes of Multiple Rocket Launch Systems). Their towed and self-propelled cannons and rockets may not necessarily be as sophisticated as western variants, such as the Archer, but they still work and are available in large numbers; mass over quality.
Now traditional artillery is joined by the already mentioned FPV and Shahed drones, as well as cruise missiles and the now ubiquitous Glide Bombs.
Glide Bombs are not new weapons. Variants have existed in many air forces for decades. Now, increasingly long-range, high-explosive variants are used by Russia to pound enemy potions; even a near miss can inflict enormous damage. Added to this, the Glide bombs are in an eternal arms race to harden them against electronic warfare and improve their guidance systems to further automate the process and improve accuracy, as well as massively increase their range via the use of rocket boosters. This is so that the strike aircraft that unleash them, need not risk going too close to the line of contact.
Russia can leverage considerable local firepower to achieve breakthroughs and advances. Western countries must counter this…
…kill the Archer and his quiver
Here again western militaries can leverage their advantages in accurate reconnaissance, precision strikes and most importantly, air superiority. If the Russian Air Defense capabilities can be sufficiently suppressed or destroyed, then attacking artillery units, Shahed drone and cruise missile launch sites and shooting down Russian strike bombers would be well within NATO capabilities. Both the weapons and weapon delivery systems could be obliterated in large numbers.
Again the only reason Ukraine has been unable to do this is due to not possessing Air Superiority and not possessing nearly enough long range precision strike munitions, as well the necessary as up to the minute intelligence from military satellites.
NATO, does and NATO, could.
Cyber warfare and Disinformation
Much of this article has looked at the Russian military on the battlefield; however, it is away from the battlefield where, arguably, Russia has its main advantages.
On Social media and legacy news media, Russian Disinformation has been a considerable success. Aided by political bias and Kremlin-friendly narratives, Ukraine has been constantly on the back foot in getting its side of the story across.
Added to this, Russia’s cyber warriors constantly probe for weaknesses in security. Cyber attacks last year, whilst not always directly attributed to Russia, have increased in scale and boldness.
These two twin threats should not be taken lightly. They undermine alliances, undermine governments and whip up fury amongst selected political groups. Russia does a lot of things ‘wrong’ on the battlefield, but online, they weld considerable out-sized power…
…unleash the Cyber warriors; Democracy must endure
Democracy can, and must, endure under these circumstances.
Proper leveraging of Social Media moderation in wartime at least, could seriously blunt Russian propaganda efforts. Would it affect Free Speech? Absolutely, but in the midst of a full-scale war against an aggressive state, such moderation should be looked on more as an inconvenience to be endured until the threat is defeated, as apposed to a violation of liberty. Said liberty, after all, would be considerably more violated in the event of a Russian victory, especially for any state invaded by Russia.
NATO’s cyber warriors meantime should be unleashed. Moving from defensive to offensive operations. They have the numbers, experience, skills and positioning to help any NATO defence. Ukraine did it at the start of the invasion with very limited Cyber abilities itself. NATO’s fully funded cyber fighters should be allowed to do their job well.
Economic warfare
Europe is slowly but surely removing its dependence on Russian gas and oil. Not all countries are on board, however, and Russia can still exert an influence on decision-making, especially on the likes of Hungary and Slovakia, which are more dependent than other nations.
Economic warfare likewise has been leveraged to good effect with Russia’s alliance with China and its relations with India. China has taken full advantage of the export situation with Russia, and India continues to maintain a considerable amount of military kit with Russian help.
In a future war, as with Ukraine, Russia could use this economic influence to silence concerns, remove or prevent sanctions and take actions that otherwise could have seen it economically punished by other nations. It's access and distribution of fossil fuels allows Russia a lot more leeway than it has any right to access for it's bestial business…
…pull together
For all the trouble making that Orban and Fico make, it is not right that their people be punished for the failures of their leaders; said leaders of both those nations are not stupid men; Viktor Orban of Hungary was savvy enough to seek to make a deal with America regarding the economic situation.
A similar deal could well be made in the midst of war, particularly if Hungary or Slovakia are threatened by Russia directly in some way. Their relationship with Russia is, and remains, transactional. Given a better deal by Europe itself, they will take it.
As for China and India, again, Europe has considerably more economic power over all, than Russia. It may not have the same access to fossil fuels but it does have many economic options at its disposal. China still needs European exports. India has shown an interest in Western military technology in recent times, over Russian.
There are opportunities there that could be taken; never mind that Russia’s fossil fuels are not in infinite supply, and Europe’s increasingly aggressive stance against ‘the Shadow fleet’ is to be applauded.
Conclusion
Russia can be beaten by NATO and Europe; I have said this many times before.
Victory is dependent on the right action being taken now. Not later, not years from now, not after the war in Ukraine ends; we need to be ready to face down and defeat Russia now if we are to defeat the Bears’ many strategies, as insane some of them seem to be…
The activity of Nato’s cyber security is worrisome because while its defence
Posture is awesome its attack capabilities are theoretical and not honed in actual use. More use should be made of the multitude of young people who are individually very capable within Nato areas to help in what increasingly looks like a war in all but name.