Clipping The Bears Wings - Operation Spiderweb
The Ukrainian SBU pulled off a highly successful attack on Russian Strategic aviation. Just what did it accomplish?
It was no normal operation. This wasn't just a big drone attack, or the successful destruction of one high-value airframe.
This was an extensively planned and carefully executed operation, designed to cause maximum damage.
Operation ‘Spiderweb’ in it’s retelling has all the flair of a modern-day espionage action thriller. A high stakes gamble, meticulous planning, advanced technology and near pitch perfect timing.
What did this operation achieve? It certainly achieved a lot, but one must look past the glory and into the detail to discover just what it’s objectives and aftereffects were.
Unlike most of my other articles I have listed my sources at the end, as many aspects of the reporting on the operation dove tail into each other. I have attempted to summarize these many information sources below.
What exactly happened?
As far as can be determined, on the morning of the 1st June 2025 from around 12.00 pm to 2.00 pm, a total of 4 separate Russian military airfields were successfully attacked by over 100 small Ukrainian FPV drones (with a 5th airfield whose attack was stopped beforehand).
These explosive laden drones specifically targeted Russian heavy military aircraft, using Russia’s own mobile phone network (via operator remote control through ArduPilot, an FPV piloting hardware-software solution). AI may have been used to train the drones to recognise the specific silhouette of Russia bombers and in particular, the exact locations to strike them, whilst human pilots may have provided needed guidance on specific targets or angles of attack.
Reports suggest the attacks have been highly successful, with Ukraine announcing that over 40 Russian aircraft have been destroyed as well as over 7 billion dollars’ worth of damage inflicted.
What aircraft?
The types of targets suggested in reports are:
Tupolev TU-95 ‘Bear’ Bomber = This four-engineer turboprop (propeller) bomber has been in existence since 1952. It is a strategic bomber aircraft and despite its age is used regularly as a launch platform for cruise missiles against Ukraine. The majority of the bombers destroyed during the attack seem to have been of this type.
Tupolev TU-22 ‘Backfire' bomber = The TU-22M is a super-sonic strategic bomber, with variable sweep wings. Like the TU-95, it can carry a variety of cruise missiles; except the TU-22 can carry more of them. Several of these types of bomber were destroyed during the attack.
Tupolev TU-160 ‘Blackjack' bomber = This vast supersonic strategic bomber is again used to launch large numbers of cruise missiles at Ukraine, the difference being that each individual TU-160 is capable of carrying a very large payload. During the operation, it appears none of these bombers were destroyed.
Beriev AN-50 = In difference to the other aircraft, the A-50 is an airborne early warning and control aircraft, of which only a small number are still operational with the Russian air force. However, the aircraft hit may well have been mothballed versions intended only for use as spare parts; they may not have been fully operational variants.
What airfields?
5 x airfields have been specifically identified as targets of the operation
Belaya Air Base = home to a variety of Heavy Bomber squadrons, operating TU-22 aircraft. This base is located in the south of Russia.
Dyagilevo Air Base = another heavy bomber base, located in the west of Russia.
Ivanovo Severny Air Base = A military logistics base that operates A-50 aircraft, located in the west of Russia.
Olenya Air Base = A Maritime airbase located in the far north of Russia
Ukrainka Air Base = the one airbase that was not attacked, as the lorry carrying the intended attack drones caught fire and exploded before getting to its launch position. This base is located in Russia’s far east.
How much damage did the attack cause?
Ukraine claims over 40 aircraft destroyed or damaged, whilst Open Source analysis confirms those destroyed as around 22 so far via video evidence.
The 7 billion dollars is slightly harder to clarify. If around 40 aircraft really were damaged or destroyed the dollar value would be around 4 billion dollars.
Additionally the airframes involved were all made decades ago, well before the current Putin regime and whilst upgrade work has kept them flying no new aircraft have been delivered of these types.
However, it should be noted that the ‘40 airframes and 7 billion dollars of damage’ are more framing device for a successful operation; they help ‘Joe Public’ understand this was a highly successful operation.
Beyond the numbers, the operation has additional knock-on effects...
Propaganda and public perception
Back in February 2025, during the tense white house meeting between Donald Trump and Zelensky, President Trump uttered the line ‘You don’t have any cards’ as if to suggest Ukraine couldn’t possibly win against Russia.
Operation Spiderweb, never mind the successful attacks on Railway engines and a recent strike in the Kerch Bridge suggest that, actually, Ukraine has plenty of cards.
These successful attacks, effectively publicited both by the careful media campaign of Ukraine itself, and the panicked videos of Russian’s (with one unfortunate conscript both filming himself and the immediate aftermath of the attack) help boost Ukraine’s public perception.
They are a push back against President Trump and a boost to European leaders who are actively increasing support to Ukraine. The message is clear; ‘keep supporting us, we can win this’.
After shocks
There is more.
No sooner had Spiderweb completed it’s attacks than the SBU released details of not only the attack itself, via drone feeds, but also photographs and explanations of just how they had done it.
This may seem like a very odd thing to do. Why on earth would you show the whole world how you pulled off such a complex operation?
Simple; to force your enemy to take further steps to protect himself; to waste time and energy in areas he thought were safe.
Across Russia, due to the attacks being carried out by lorry borne mobile homes and container lorries, security services have been thoroughly checking such vehicles. This has caused a lot of delays and frustration for original Russians; it has brought the after effects of the war home again.
That’s Spiderwebs secret sauce; by revealing how you carried out the attack you force your opponent to react; he must take steps to head off further attacks of the same kind; even though Ukraine likely has no plans to conduct similar attacks.
At least, not in the short term
Istanbul
1st June was a very specifically chosen date as well.
In Russia itself it was Military Transport Day
For Ukraine, it just so happened to be the same day Ukraine gave up its Nuclear arsenal back in 1996
And of course it was the day before the beginning of the second round of Istanbul negotiations.
The intent was clear from a negotiating position; put the Russians on a weak starting block.
Remove the haughty arrogance that was the main point of the previous meeting, with the Russian delegation claiming they could keep fighting for 20 years.
Whilst little progress was made other than on prisoner swaps and returning downed soldiers, their were slightly less arrogant claims from the Russian side…
Conclusions
Whilst the 7-billion-dollar value is likely an over exaggeration, and Russia has other methods of firing cruise missiles toward Ukrainian cities, it is still a very serious blow.
It makes a mockery of Russian security, striking deep into Russia. It was cheap to develop and execute in comparison to the cost to the enemy, and it is highly likely that the planners of the event are all now safely back in Ukraine; leaving Russia without a true scapegoat to put on trail. It’s after effects will affect future deployment planning, security and logistics.
Russia ability to ‘project power’ has been badly compromised. Putin's regime has once again been shown to exist on exceedingly shaky ground.
Sources
CSIS report ‘Ukraine’s Drone Swarms Are Destroying Russian Nuclear Bombers. What Happens Now?’
Sarcastaurus articles here, here and here
Trench Art articles here, here, here and here
Wes O’Donnell’s article here
Philips Obrien update here
Ukraine’s Arms Monitor here
Mike Casey here
Ben Morgan here
